The nature of innovations: the world will be divided into three types. According to Bloomberg, the highest level of access will still belong to US allies such as Germany, Japan, South Korea and 15 other countries. For China, Russia and more than 20 other countries, the door is almost closed. And most countries will fall into a “gray zone,” where there are strict limits on computing power. For example, such countries will be allowed to import chips equivalent to 50,000 GPUs between 2025 and 2027, but only if certain conditions are met, including compliance with safety standards and human rights.

Market reaction

Nvidia, which accounts for 95% of the global AI accelerator market, has made no secret of its displeasure. The company called the restrictions a “threat to U.S. growth and economic leadership.” Should we be surprised? After all, China, which accounts for about 15% of Nvidia's revenue, will be at the bottom of this technology ranking. Furthermore, representatives of the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) warned that such measures could hurt competitors from other countries, especially China.

Indeed, Chinese companies, despite sanctions, have learned to adapt. Tencent and DeepSeek in 2024 introduced models that can compete with the development of OpenAI. What is especially surprising is that these benefits are achieved using less powerful but still commercially available Nvidia chips. US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo recently said that the only way to beat China in the technology race is to focus on our own innovation, instead of sanctions and sanctions. limit.

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The United States, which controls 90% of the global market for general AI solutions, is acting tough but calculated. The new regulations not only prohibit the export of advanced chips to China and Russia, but also prohibit the use of proprietary AI models in these countries. This is a step that will slow the development of competing technologies.

However, as IT-World discovered, not everyone thinks this strategy is perfect. Critics say the restrictions could be a “gift” to other players. China is actively developing its own chips, and new barriers only stimulate domestic production. Furthermore, countries in the “gray zone” may begin to seek alternatives from US competitors.

Who benefits from the restrictions?

The new US regulations look like an attempt to stay ahead in the global race for AI. But is this enough? Despite the severity of the restrictions, experts believe China remains competitive. For example, Tencent recently introduced a model that beats Meta* in a number of ways. And this is just a year after the previous tightening of sanctions.

China dominates the traditional semiconductor market

The US is betting that export restrictions will affect the available supply of chips needed for large-scale projects. But it also sets the stage for diplomatic conflict. Singapore, Israel and other US allies beyond the first group may see this as limiting their access to technology.

The US is tightening the rules of the game, but the question is: will US companies themselves benefit from this? Currently, Nvidia and other giants like AMD see this as a risk rather than an opportunity. China, despite difficulties, continues to close the gap, not only developing its own chips but also developing more efficient software.

* The company is recognized as an extremist organization, its activities are banned in Russia.